Беседы на яхте

From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:03 AM
To: Reva Bhalla
Cc: Aaron Colvin; Secure List; George Friedman; Eugene Chausovsky;
Catherine Durbin
Subject: Re: ИНСАЙТ – как Франция меняет сердечную привязанность
 

Reva Bhalla написал:

но точно ли мы знаем, что Россия давит на Total?

On Sep 22, 2009, at 10:00 AM, Aaron Colvin wrote:

Решила привести полный разговор по этому поводу, так что ты можешь увидеть мои вопросы

CODE: RU108
PUBLICATION: yes
ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Moscow
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: senior at Putina**s think-group
SOURCES LEVEL: high
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISSEMINATION: Secure, George, Eugene, Catherine
SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

ЛГ (Лорен Гудрич): Франция, похоже, сегодня поменяла настроения по поводу своих фанатских плясок вокруг санкций? Не знаете ли, что заставило их поменять мнение?
RU108 (влиятельный эксперт в круге Путина): У них было несколько приватных бесед на прошлой неделе.
LG: Это Путин их поправил?
RU108: Да. Но и их монстр (имеется в виду корпорация Total, имеющая контракты в России. – «РР-Онлайн») не хочет быть игрушкой в американских планах.
LG: Так Total тоже надавил на Сарко (Саркози. – «РР-Онлайн»)?
RU108: У нас были полезные беседы с ними тоже. Яхты прекрасно годятся для такого рода вещей.
LG: А, поняла. То есть вы поработали и с Парижем, и с Total.
RU108: Не совсем точно. Они и сами стремятся быть адекватными моменту. Они не хотят слепо следовать кому-либо.
LG: То есть, Франция сейчас расширила свои возможности.

RU108: Ваш лидер просто построил карточный домик.

Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart

1681491

From   marko.papic@stratfor.com

To        gfriedman@stratfor.com

goodrich@stratfor.com

bokhari@stratfor.com

reva.bhalla@stratfor.com

catherine.durbin@stratfor.com

eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com

aaron.colvin@stratfor.com

secure@stratfor.com

Others MessageId: <594750962.14151051253652069338.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com>

InReplyTo: 076601ca3b9e$0a263c70$1e72b550$@com

Text

Can we confirm they are talking about Total? Don't forget the EDF and GDF

deals with SouthStream, NorthStream respectively... Those deals happened

pretty close to the Kouchner statement to be coincidence... It's just too

much at the same time, it reeks of coordination.

----- Original Message -----

From: "Kamran Bokhari"

To: "Lauren Goodrich"

Cc: "Reva Bhalla" , "Aaron Colvin"

, "Secure List" , "George

Friedman" , "Eugene Chausovsky"

, "Catherine Durbin"

Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:02:07 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central

Subject: RE: INSIGHT - France's change of heart

Gotcha.

From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]

Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:42 AM

To: Kamran Bokhari

Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'; 'Aaron Colvin'; 'Secure List'; 'George Friedman';

'Eugene Chausovsky'; 'Catherine Durbin'

Subject: Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart

Monster = Total ... all the energy giants are called monsters in Russia,

it is a joke that makes no sense

Kamran Bokhari wrote:

Monster= Sarko?

From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]

Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:03 AM

To: Reva Bhalla

Cc: Aaron Colvin; Secure List; George Friedman; Eugene Chausovsky;

Catherine Durbin

Subject: Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart

not yet

Reva Bhalla wrote:

but do we know what Russia did to pressure Total?

On Sep 22, 2009, at 10:00 AM, Aaron Colvin wrote:

**decided to keep my entire BB conversation on this, so you could see my

questions.

CODE: RU108

PUBLICATION: yes

ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Moscow

SOURCE DESCRIPTION: senior at Putina**s think-group

SOURCES LEVEL: high

ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3

DISSEMINATION: Secure, George, Eugene, Catherine

SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

LG: The French seem to have a change of heart today in continuing their

cheerleading of the sanctions. Know what changed their heart?

RU108: They had some nice conversations this week.

LG: Putin set them straight?

RU108: Yes. And their own monster doesna**t want to be part of the US

plans.

LG: So Total also pressuring Sarko?

RU108: We had a nice chat with them too. Yachts are good for that sort of

thing.

LG: Ah, got it. So ya**all got to both Paris and Total.

RU108: It isna**t absolute. They want to be part of this moment. But they

are not blindly following anymore.

LG: So France is weighing all its options right now.

RU108: Your leader has built a house of cards.

--

Lauren Goodrich

Director of Analysis

Senior Eurasia Analyst

STRATFOR

T: 512.744.4311

F: 512.744.4334

lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com

www.stratfor.com

--

Lauren Goodrich

Director of Analysis

Senior Eurasia Analyst

STRATFOR

T: 512.744.4311

F: 512.744.4334

lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com

www.stratfor.com

--

Lauren Goodrich

Director of Analysis

Senior Eurasia Analyst

STRATFOR

T: 512.744.4311

F: 512.744.4334

lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com

www.stratfor.com