Беседы на яхте
From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:03 AM
To: Reva Bhalla
Cc: Aaron Colvin; Secure List; George Friedman; Eugene Chausovsky;
Catherine Durbin
Subject: Re: ИНСАЙТ – как Франция меняет сердечную привязанность
Reva Bhalla написал:
но точно ли мы знаем, что Россия давит на Total?
On Sep 22, 2009, at 10:00 AM, Aaron Colvin wrote:
Решила привести полный разговор по этому поводу, так что ты можешь увидеть мои вопросы
CODE: RU108
PUBLICATION: yes
ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Moscow
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: senior at Putina**s think-group
SOURCES LEVEL: high
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISSEMINATION: Secure, George, Eugene, Catherine
SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
ЛГ (Лорен Гудрич): Франция, похоже, сегодня поменяла настроения по поводу своих фанатских плясок вокруг санкций? Не знаете ли, что заставило их поменять мнение?
RU108 (влиятельный эксперт в круге Путина): У них было несколько приватных бесед на прошлой неделе.
LG: Это Путин их поправил?
RU108: Да. Но и их монстр (имеется в виду корпорация Total, имеющая контракты в России. – «РР-Онлайн») не хочет быть игрушкой в американских планах.
LG: Так Total тоже надавил на Сарко (Саркози. – «РР-Онлайн»)?
RU108: У нас были полезные беседы с ними тоже. Яхты прекрасно годятся для такого рода вещей.
LG: А, поняла. То есть вы поработали и с Парижем, и с Total.
RU108: Не совсем точно. Они и сами стремятся быть адекватными моменту. Они не хотят слепо следовать кому-либо.
LG: То есть, Франция сейчас расширила свои возможности.
RU108: Ваш лидер просто построил карточный домик.
Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart
1681491
From marko.papic@stratfor.com
To gfriedman@stratfor.com
goodrich@stratfor.com
bokhari@stratfor.com
reva.bhalla@stratfor.com
catherine.durbin@stratfor.com
eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com
aaron.colvin@stratfor.com
secure@stratfor.com
Others MessageId: <594750962.14151051253652069338.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com>
InReplyTo: 076601ca3b9e$0a263c70$1e72b550$@com
Text
Can we confirm they are talking about Total? Don't forget the EDF and GDF
deals with SouthStream, NorthStream respectively... Those deals happened
pretty close to the Kouchner statement to be coincidence... It's just too
much at the same time, it reeks of coordination.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Kamran Bokhari"
To: "Lauren Goodrich"
Cc: "Reva Bhalla" , "Aaron Colvin"
, "Secure List" , "George
Friedman" , "Eugene Chausovsky"
, "Catherine Durbin"
Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:02:07 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
Subject: RE: INSIGHT - France's change of heart
Gotcha.
From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:42 AM
To: Kamran Bokhari
Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'; 'Aaron Colvin'; 'Secure List'; 'George Friedman';
'Eugene Chausovsky'; 'Catherine Durbin'
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart
Monster = Total ... all the energy giants are called monsters in Russia,
it is a joke that makes no sense
Kamran Bokhari wrote:
Monster= Sarko?
From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:03 AM
To: Reva Bhalla
Cc: Aaron Colvin; Secure List; George Friedman; Eugene Chausovsky;
Catherine Durbin
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart
not yet
Reva Bhalla wrote:
but do we know what Russia did to pressure Total?
On Sep 22, 2009, at 10:00 AM, Aaron Colvin wrote:
**decided to keep my entire BB conversation on this, so you could see my
questions.
CODE: RU108
PUBLICATION: yes
ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Moscow
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: senior at Putina**s think-group
SOURCES LEVEL: high
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISSEMINATION: Secure, George, Eugene, Catherine
SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
LG: The French seem to have a change of heart today in continuing their
cheerleading of the sanctions. Know what changed their heart?
RU108: They had some nice conversations this week.
LG: Putin set them straight?
RU108: Yes. And their own monster doesna**t want to be part of the US
plans.
LG: So Total also pressuring Sarko?
RU108: We had a nice chat with them too. Yachts are good for that sort of
thing.
LG: Ah, got it. So ya**all got to both Paris and Total.
RU108: It isna**t absolute. They want to be part of this moment. But they
are not blindly following anymore.
LG: So France is weighing all its options right now.
RU108: Your leader has built a house of cards.
--
Lauren Goodrich
Director of Analysis
Senior Eurasia Analyst
STRATFOR
T: 512.744.4311
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
--
Lauren Goodrich
Director of Analysis
Senior Eurasia Analyst
STRATFOR
T: 512.744.4311
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
--
Lauren Goodrich
Director of Analysis
Senior Eurasia Analyst
STRATFOR
T: 512.744.4311
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
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