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Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama


Date    2009-11-06 23:08:21

From   Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com

To        burton@stratfor.com


Others MessageId: <4AF49E55.8030003@stratfor.com>

InReplyTo: 268837234-1257545043-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-320571088-@bda050.bisx.prod.on.blackberry


Maybe, but he's choked on the national stage a few times now. I can't get

past his smile...makes him look sleazy.


burton@stratfor.com wrote:


Bobby Jindel? He's some sort of Indian.


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T




From: Anya Alfano

Date: Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:58:58 -0500


Cc: Bartholomew Mongoven

Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama

Tim Pawlenty is about as close as the GOP gets to a sharp, young and

eligible governor.


burton@stratfor.com wrote:


Romney can't make it. Mormons are viewed as Voo Doo.


We need a sharp young Governor.


I also like Michelle Bachman.


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T




From: "Bartholomew Mongoven"

Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:52:13 -0500

To: 'Anya Alfano';

Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama

Pawlenty is good.


I think Romney could do it if he is himself. He was as badly handled

in 2008 as Al Gore was in 2000. It should have been his nomination

and he screwed it all up.


Newt might actually pull the trigger.


I think Huckabee could do it just to piss off people like me.


I would tell Jeb that his time came and went when Katrina went under



Frist would love to do it, but it'll take time for him to get up and





From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]

Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 4:46 PM

To: burton@stratfor.com

Cc: Bartholomew Mongoven

Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama

The neocons on top of my hill all want Tim Pawlenty.


burton@stratfor.com wrote:


The GOP folks I talk to are pushing Jeb Bush. I think that is a

mistake. Who else is out there?


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T




From: "Bartholomew Mongoven"

Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:39:03 -0500

To: 'Anya Alfano'

Cc: 'Fred Burton'

Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama

Depends on where you are. In your neck of the woods, people tend to

think no one can do the right thing in Washington. They think the

world here is so corrupt that progress will always be stifled by the

moneyed interests. (Of course, the fact is that on domestic policy,

it's like foreign policy -- the president can have his ideals but

there are very few things he can do that won't screw up the

country. So he doesn't do them. Watch climate, for instance. It's

not corporate lobbying holding him from a deal, it's China. He

won't commit economic suicide just to make environmentalists happy.

The environmentalists don't think it's suicide, so they think Obama

has sold out. It's sad really.)


I think Mrs. P is far closer to a D.C. view of things. The liberal

factions in DC think Obama is being a pussy. They don't want a

climate deal that kills the US economy and gives everything to the

Chinese, but they want someone to stand up to the Chinese and say

"this is the way it's going to be." From a West Coast

liberal perspective, that's inflaming rivalry and inviting

conflict. From an East Coast perspective, that's the only way to

get a climate bill. Right now, he's not going to commit suicide

(Bay Area approach) but he's not going to back the Chinese down

(Mrs. P) either.


Obama needs to get in a fight and do something really mean and

unfair to the right. (Gays in the military/revoke Don't Ask Don't

tell). He's afraid of the backlash. He could also tell the banks to

go screw themselves. Either way, he needs to do something that says

he doesn't care about losing political capital. By front loading

health care and climate, he made being politically safe his primary

objective. He doesn't think he can afford to piss people off until

those two are done. (Back to Emanuel, whose job is to tell him that

he shouldn't front load all of his controversial proposals.)








From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]

Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 4:17 PM

To: Bartholomew Mongoven

Cc: 'Fred Burton'

Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama

Bart, do you believe Mrs. P's thoughts are fairly mainstream among

Obama supporters, or are most still fairly content? I feel like I

hear comments similar to Mrs. P all the time on other various

issues, but my viewpoint is probably fairly skewed. (Marx himself

couldn't satisfy half the people here.)


Bartholomew Mongoven wrote:


I don't disagree that Biden is a weasel. I think Emanuel is

emasculating Obama by selling him on clever Clintonesque

tactics. I would love to see Obama with someone more principled

and less clever as Chief of Staff. He needs a James Baker and he

has a Donald Regan. At least Clinton had Panetta at first to tell

him when to not be a pussy. Without Panetta Clinton was just a

great tactician but he didn't get anything done (except get







From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]

Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 3:58 PM

To: 'Bartholomew Mongoven'; 'Anya Alfano'

Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama

She blames Obama and Biden. I dropped Emanuel into the soup and

she said that he would be added to her list. She believes Biden

is weasel and Obama is a pussy. I want her to fund my bid for

Congress. Yes, I can be bought.




From: Bartholomew Mongoven [mailto:mongoven@stratfor.com]

Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 10:55 AM

To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Anya Alfano'

Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama

I remember that she had misgivings about supporting him during the

primaries. I assume that rather than support a challenger, she'll

just sit out 2012 (unless Obama finds a spine). I'd love to know

if there was any talk about whether she and her set think it's him

or his staff (esp. Emanuel) who is making his presidency so

muddled so far.






From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]

Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 9:02 AM

To: 'Bartholomew Mongoven'; 'Anya Alfano'

Subject: FW: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama

Mrs. P




From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]

Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 8:01 AM

To: 'Secure List'

Subject: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama

From a billionaire Democratic fundraiser --


The billionaire (who also funds ACORN) is greatly disappointed

over Obama's "weakness and wimpyness" towards China ("Fred, they

only understand strength") and Obama's failure to meet with the

Dhali Lama. The fundraiser stated he/she was personally

disappointed ("betrayed") for helping Obama get into The White

House and does not intend to support Obama next election, absent a

drastic turn-around. 

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