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RE: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... + chaika craziness

5410884

Date    2007-09-04 17:07:05

From   burton@stratfor.com

 

To        gfriedman@stratfor.com

burton@stratfor.com

goodrich@stratfor.com

scott.stewart@stratfor.com

eurasia@stratfor.com

secure@stratfor.com

Others MessageId: <20070904150508.E19AE16A9A07@alamo.stratfor.com>

InReplyTo: 20070904110911.70612168D607@alamo.stratfor.com

Text

Can you get more granular data on the safe room construction?

 

Also, what MNC's or industries could be affected by this move?

 

If this OC figure controls the ports (per Peter), what kinds of kickbacks

could be taking place with outbound containers?

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]

Sent: Tuesday, September 04, 2007 6:11 AM

To: 'Lauren Goodrich'; 'Secure List'; 'EurAsia Team'; 'George Friedman';

'scott stewart'

Subject: RE: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... +

chaika craziness

What kind of crime did he control?

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]

Sent: Monday, September 03, 2007 10:50 PM

To: 'Secure List'; 'EurAsia Team'; George Friedman; Fred Burton; scott

stewart

Subject: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... +

chaika craziness

[**more coming on all of this, I could only chat briefly with Chaika...

pls keep the fact that he gave us this info under wraps, but we can use

the info other than that]

I'm leaning towards the fact that Putin is really cracking down on any

power player that doesn't play in his arena... and that the Tambov Clan

was soooo powerful and didn't listen to Putin as much as he wanted. This

is a HUGE nab for Chaika (congrats to him)... also a good note for Chaika

to leave on (he's quitting the Kremlin, so he says... and that is

classified info for the next week until I get the green light to go

forward on that huge Kremlin re-shuffle)

TAMBOV CRIMINAL GROUP

 

The head of the Tambov Criminal Group Vladimir Barsukov was arrested on

this past week by the Prosecutor General Chaika's group. Barsukov, also

known as Kumarin, based his group out of St. Petersburg.

 

He has many old friends within the inner circle, especially Alexei

Mordashov (Severstal) and Vladimir Yakunin (railways minister). Barsurkov

was a person that many in Russia tolerated because of his connections and

the fact that he was in charge of the highly powerful Tambov gang. But

Putin considered him a relic of a by-gone era and was eager to get rid of

him, though he was instrumental during Putin's earlier years. Putin

himself was "familiar" with Barsukov when he worked in the St. Petersburg

mayoral office.

 

The entire operation to bring him down was orchestrated by Chaika along

with FSB head Nikolai Patrushev and Interior Min Rashid Nurgaliev, though

many tried to stop him-especially Yakunin and Mordashov. [sidenote:

Yakunin and Chaika have never been close and after the last attack on the

train from Moscow to St. Petersburg, the security forces turned to Chaika,

not Yakunin, for information and cooperation.]

 

Barsukov was in a safe room and it took hours to pry him open from his

home. They had a huge amount of OMAN police forces with them, knowing that

this could have become really gross really fast.

 

One of the breaking points was the fact that Barsukov wanted to gain

control over many oil infrastructure assets in St. Petersburg... Chaika

said that this was shocking because no real criminal organizations dare to

take claim on energy infrastructure. The joke Chaika said was, "they may

be crime bosses, but they don't want to mess with Surkov, Sechin,

Bogdanchikov or others or else they may learn what real pressure and

tactics looks like."

 

The arrest of Barsurkov is expected to create a few repercussions... 1)

there will be a power struggle within the Tambov clan [I need to break

down what they control, can the CT team help?] 2) Chaika and others expect

atleast some retaliation, though they feel confident in their infiltration

of the organization to head most of it off 3) Yakunin and Mordashov will

really be after Chaika, Nurgaliev and Patrushev... Chaika isn't too

worried about this, but says that Yakunin is really petty about

retaliation.

 

OTHER ISSUES...

 

Chaika said he has already been under a lot of heat because of the

Politkovskaya arrests. He said that he would rather not tell me about the

"Chechen mastermind" they arrested. I asked if this was because he was not

really a mastermind and Chaika said that "many things needed to be tied up

as we head into this election and the end of Putin's reign." [I know this

is strange, but he kept saying things like, "Ivanov needs to have control

over the situation he's about to enter into.... Ivanov is known for his

distance from such situations, so they need to be wrapped up."]

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