Накануне грузинской войны

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Re: Discussion - Georgia Update

5440404

Date    2008-05-12 18:36:56

From   goodrich@stratfor.com

 

To        gfriedman@stratfor.com

 

Others InReplyTo: 48286FC6.5020406@stratfor.com

Text

do I have permission to write?

 

POSSIBLE BUDGET - Stratfor has been long following the tit-for-tat

struggle between Georgia and Russia [LINK] and as there has been an

escalation seemed to be near breaking point [LINK], but has subsided for

now since Tbilisi knows that no one is coming to its defense against its

big bear of a neighbor. However, the question to watch now is if Moscow

will again push the issue since it seems as if it is getting its internal

issues out of the way, which could free it up to concentrate on other

things, like its struggle with Georgia.

 

Lauren Goodrich wrote:

 

crisis has subsided for now...

though the Georgians are still trying to get the Europeans behind

them... they won't bite.

but could flare up again if the Kremlin get a better free hand

internally.

 

friedman@att.blackberry.net wrote:

 

So has the crisis subsided or was it never really there?

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

 

-----Original Message-----

From: Lauren Goodrich

 

Date: Mon, 12 May 2008 11:13:28

To:Analyst List

Subject: Discussion - Georgia Update

 

 

We haven't seen any large moves over the weekend for 2 reasons:

1) Georgia is still negotiating with the Europeans... though they seem to not be giving anything to Tbilisi

2) Germany and France would have to make the decision for that to change... doubt that will happen, esp with Russia and Germany meeting tomorrow on the issue

2) Kremlin has been locked away on domestic issues, which could end soon with some of the shifts Putin is making so he can concentrate on other issues.

 

Lauren Goodrich wrote: CODE: GE101, UA102

PUBLICATION: yes

ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Tbilisi & Moscow

SOURCES RELIABILITY: C-D

ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2-4

SPECIAL HANDLING: Analysts

SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

 

 

SOURCE 1:

The Foreign Ministers' dinner between select Europeans-president of EU, Poland, Lithuania, etc-- and the Georgians is about to just wrap up. Leaks from it are that the Europeans can not send any help to Georgia, especially since Germany and France have forbid it; In all honesty, Germany and France also were not in favor of the trip to Tbilisi, so it is not even EU sanctioned, though under the banner of the EU since its president is on the trip.

 

SOURCE 2:

Lithuaniais not backing down to the EU's push for it to drop its veto against Russia. It is saying that its veto is even more important with the conflict rising between Georgia and Russia. Lithuania seems to be Georgia's most vocal supporter at the moment, much to the rest of the EU's ire.

 

Steinmeier is suppose to meet with Lavrov tomorrow. They are suppose to be telling Germany to continue keeping out of the conflict with Georgia.

 

 

 

--

 

Lauren Goodrich

Director of Analysis

Senior Eurasia Analyst

Stratfor

Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

T: 512.744.4311

F: 512.744.4334

lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com

www.stratfor.com

 

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--

 

Lauren Goodrich

Director of Analysis

Senior Eurasia Analyst

Stratfor

Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

T: 512.744.4311

F: 512.744.4334

lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com

www.stratfor.com

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